Signal methodology

The rules are deliberately simple, inspectable and based on daily closing prices.

Definition of a red day

A trading day is red when its closing price is strictly lower than the preceding available trading day's close. Weekends and market holidays do not count. The streak resets when the close is unchanged or higher.

Optional minimum decline

The minimum-drop filter compares the close at the start of the streak with the latest close. A qualifying streak remains HOLD when its total decline does not reach the selected minimum.

Backtest

The backtest reports the average forward return and percentage of positive outcomes 5, 10 and 20 available trading days after a historical signal. Results are shown per asset. An asterisk marks fewer than five completed observations.

Data alignment and limitations

Cross-asset ratios use common calendar dates instead of combining closes from different sessions. TradingView charts may be real-time or exchange-delayed. Daily closes used to calculate signals are fetched server-side via Yahoo Finance (spot gold and silver, mining stocks, ETFs) and CoinGecko (PAXG, XAUT), refreshed on a schedule and published as a static file the site reads directly. Signal calculations use daily closes and are not intraday trading recommendations. Data providers can revise, delay or temporarily withhold data.

Currency and weight conversions

GoldAlert stores market prices in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Currency displays use the latest available indicative USD reference rates from ExchangeRate-API. One troy ounce is converted using exactly 31.1034768 grams. Per-gram and per-kilogram values are mathematical conversions of the scheduled daily close; they do not include dealer premiums, bid/ask spreads, tax, shipping or foreign-exchange transaction costs.

Gold Market Fear / Pullback Index

The index averages the existing 0–100 pullback scores for the eleven gold-related assets on the Signal Board. A higher score means declines are broader or have lasted longer across that tracked group. It is not a survey, volatility index, probability, forecast or separate trading rule. The component rules remain the same: 0–2 red days is HOLD, 3–4 is WATCH and 5 or more is STRONG.

Embeddable widget

The GoldAlert widget reads the same scheduled market and signal files as the main site. Publishers can select a metal, currency, weight unit and light or dark theme. The visible GoldAlert attribution and methodology link must remain in the embedded widget so visitors can inspect the source and calculation context.

Version history

This educational methodology does not establish that buying after a decline will be profitable. Past outcomes do not predict future returns.