Signal methodology
The rules are deliberately simple, inspectable and based on daily closing prices.
| Observed streak | Displayed status |
|---|---|
| 0–2 consecutive red days | HOLD |
| 3–4 consecutive red days | 50% BUY / WATCH |
| 5+ consecutive red days | 100% BUY / STRONG |
Definition of a red day
A trading day is red when its closing price is strictly lower than the preceding available trading day's close. Weekends and market holidays do not count. The streak resets when the close is unchanged or higher.
Optional minimum decline
The minimum-drop filter compares the close at the start of the streak with the latest close. A qualifying streak remains HOLD when its total decline does not reach the selected minimum.
Backtest
The backtest reports the average forward return and percentage of positive outcomes 5, 10 and 20 available trading days after a historical signal. Results are shown per asset. An asterisk marks fewer than five completed observations.
Data alignment and limitations
Cross-asset ratios use common calendar dates instead of combining closes from different sessions. TradingView charts may be real-time or exchange-delayed. Signal calculations use daily closes and are not intraday trading recommendations. Data providers can revise, delay or temporarily withhold data.
Version history
Version 2.1 — September 2026
Removed Kinesis Gold (KAU) from tracked assets: CoinGecko listed it trading across only one to three small exchanges with fragmented, inconsistent pricing, and no confirmed live TradingView data feed. Gold-backed crypto coverage is now PAXG and XAUT only, both of which have deep, verifiable liquidity. Restored the Signal Board, Cross-Asset Ratios and Comparison sections to the homepage.
Version 2.0 — September 2026
Introduced simultaneous 3-day and 5-day levels, aligned ratios, per-asset backtests, normalized comparison and a private device-only watchlist.
Version 1.0
Initial configurable consecutive-red-day simulator.
This educational methodology does not establish that buying after a decline will be profitable. Past outcomes do not predict future returns.